"Beware betting the Iron Bowl: Vegas has solved Bama"

[WALL-E]

Beware betting the Iron Bowl: Vegas has solved Bama

By Christopher Smith
Published November 19, 2018, 10:32:00 AM

Oddsmakers, or "risk managers," have ironed out all the betting market inefficiencies that surrounded Alabama early in the season. Read more...

[Catch Prothro]

At one point this season, sportsbook employees and owners hated Alabama almost as much as Auburn does.

Typically one of the fastest-adjusting markets you'll find, oddsmakers could not fathom an Alabama with one of the nation's best passing games.

The Crimson Tide flattened Louisville, Arkansas State and Ole Miss by an average score of 57-9, costing sportsbooks hundreds of thousands of dollars in the process.

Oddsmakers kept inflating Alabama's betting lines, practically begging for money to come in against the Tide. Sportsbooks finally solved the equation against the spread thanks to a back-door cover by Texas A&M in the fourth quarter.....


Occasionally, a team like Alabama does something so hard to process that it takes time to adjust. And then risk managers are intent on making sure that team does not continue to make the house bleed money.

At this point in the season, oddsmakers and risk managers have perfected Alabama lines, having obsessed over them during the middle of the schedule.

[Catch Prothro]

These same odds makers who have "perfected" Alabama are offering a betting line of 31 points if Bama played UCF.  (Bama beating UCF by 31 points.)

My first thought was that BetOnline's oddsmakers may be as tired of the UCF narrative as many of you, and that they were trying to make some sort of statement by posting a bit of an inflated line. But after studying the hypothetical matchup a little more, I think the line is precise.

Click here for link

[SUPERCOACH]

The key would be for it to be a game that counts like the playoffs, not a whatever bowl for not making the playoffs (like Auburn last year).  Although, this year, I think whoever plays them will be ready to smack them back to reality just to shut them up.

[Catch Prothro]

The key would be for it to be a game that counts like the playoffs, not a whatever bowl for not making the playoffs (like Auburn last year).  Although, this year, I think whoever plays them will be ready to smack them back to reality just to shut them up.

Leave it the Barn to let UCF keep running their mouths.   

[SUPERCOACH]

Looks like Vegas needs to recalculate. 

[Chechem]

Looks like Vegas needs to recalculate. 

You're throwing away money if you're betting college football.



Unless it's for e-creds!   

[SUPERCOACH]

Looks like Vegas needs to recalculate. 

You're throwing away money if you're betting college football.



Unless it's for e-creds!   

I was just thinking the other day that I need to run an overall report now that we have 8 years of data to see if anyone is above 50%.  Maybe someday soon I can add an all time winning percentage page or something.

[Chechem]

Looks like Vegas needs to recalculate. 

You're throwing away money if you're betting college football.
Unless it's for e-creds!   

I was just thinking the other day that I need to run an overall report now that we have 8 years of data to see if anyone is above 50%.  Maybe someday soon I can add an all time winning percentage page or something.

OMG, I know Ricky is below 20%, and I'm prolly right with him.   

[Guest]

Username:
Password:
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

• SUPERCOACH

Loading Tweet...