From the ESPN spring wrap-up. The full story requires an insider account. But the only part that matters is plain for anyone to see.
SEC West
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
Projected finish: 11-1
Win total range: 10-2 to 12-0
Chance to win SEC: 62 percent
There's no such thing as absolute certainty in college football, but Nick Saban has built a program in Tuscaloosa that comes close. The Crimson Tide have produced three championships in the past four seasons along with a handful of the most dominant single-game performances our team efficiency ratings have ever measured. Our model situates Alabama head and shoulders above the rest of the conference -- the Tide won at least a share of the SEC West title in 908 of the 1,000 simulated seasons.
Alabama was only truly vulnerable last season when it turned the ball over. In games versus LSU, Texas A&M and Georgia (games in which Alabama outscored its opponents 77-74), the Crimson Tide lost more than 25 points in scoreboard value on turnovers. Against its other FBS opponents, Alabama gained more than 67 points in scoreboard value on turnovers. This fall, against a schedule with few potential pitfalls and armed with elite talent across the field, Alabama is the clear front-runner to win the SEC.
Enjoy your snooze, but make sure you set your psychological alarms for midnight, August 25th, the official beginning of game week. There'll be work to be done: picks, look-a-like thread, hunting down hscoach and making sure he's on the case, etc.
Roll Tide