They remind me of Boise State. They have a good team but nothing they do with that schedule will impress me. I assume we will have CRS poll again this year. I will put them 8-10 and they will most likely stay there most of the year. The only way they move up is if all teams ahead of them stink.
The American Athletic Conference has the Big East's automatic bid to the BCS, so they'll play in the big bowls if they go undefeated.
That, plus the attraction of Bridgewater, will keep them in the polls. The bowls will want Louisville and Bridgewater, much more than they wanted Boise.
I don't think they can get into the BCSNCG, even if everyone else loses a game (as you said), but they'll stay in the top 10 if undefeated.