Las Vegas & the FSU-Auburn Game Outlook

[Marshal Dillon]

Interesting analysis, but I still think Auburn wins, for now. Read the entire article and let me know what you think.

A week ago, before Florida State rocked Duke and Auburn rolled through Missouri in their conference championship games, Johnny Avello had the No. 1 Seminoles as a 13-point favorite over the then-No. 3 Tigers.

Some action in the $10,000 range dropped the Wynn's line to 8.5 and then 8, where it currently sits, a number that exposes a blatant dividing line: how Vegas experts feel about Auburn compared to most everybody else in America.

Avello actually might be more generous to Auburn than other Vegas experts who either set lines or analyze them. The guys at Don Best Sports, Chief Operating Office Kenny White and analyst Todd Fuhrman, who also serves as FOX Sports 1’s Vegas insider, believe the actual divide between Florida State and Auburn is far wider than the public seems to realize.

"You would think in a game between the No. 1 and No. 2 teams, [the spread] wouldn't be that big of a gap, but this isn't the No. 1 versus No. 2,” White told me. "This is our No. 1 team versus our No. 13 team."

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[pmull]

I agree with the article. The barn's luck will end and the best team will win. I like FSU   and think they are the better team.



Edit: I forgot to mention I hate Auburn.

[Merk]

I agree with the analysis. All things considered when lining up these two teams, FSU has more talent and should win baring miraculous intervention.

[roll tide roll]

boogerU generated 300+ yards on four series.

The rest of their possessions were 3 and out and 1 turnover.

Marshall can not win with his arm.

FSU's defense practices daily against a much better offensive group who runs a very similar scheme to boogerU's offense.

The advantage I give to boogerU is their defensive line.  Not strength or size, but bodies.  Their ability to rotate linemen kept BAMA from physically dominating them into submission and taking control of the LOS.

However, I do not think  that is enough to beat FSU.  We will see.

[Catch Prothro]

"You would think in a game between the No. 1 and No. 2 teams, [the spread] wouldn't be that big of a gap, but this isn't the No. 1 versus No. 2,” White told me. "This is our No. 1 team versus our No. 13 team."

The line is lower than analysis would indicate, not because of skill, but blind luck.

I think it is one of those offenses that you can't prepare for in a week, like the triple option, but with a month of practice you should be able to shut it down.

But another thing is, FSU has not been tested this year, whereas Auburn has been up against some pretty tough competition.  If FSU comes in overconfident, they could be in for a shock, like other teams facing an SEC "underdog" in a BCSCG.

[KoKoPuf]

FSU will have a month to prepare solely for the AU offense. Gives them plenty of time to develop schemes to shut it down.

[SUPERCOACH]

FSU will have a month to prepare solely for the AU offense. Gives them plenty of time to develop schemes to shut it down.

And Ol' Gus will have a month to dream up some of those crazy trick plays, like throwing a pass and bouncing it off the goal post or something. 

[cbbama99]

FSU will have a month to prepare solely for the AU offense. Gives them plenty of time to develop schemes to shut it down.

And Ol' Gus will have a month to dream up some of those crazy trick plays, like throwing a pass and bouncing it off the goal post or something. 

Don't laugh, that will probably be how the barn wins the game. 

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