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Title: College Football: Hawaii Point-Shaving Allegations Examined Post by: Coach Hank Crisp on November 23, 2011, 08:05:18 AM http://pregame.com/sports/stories/b/news/archive/2011/11/22/college-football_3a00_-hawaii-point_2d00_shaving-allegations-examined-195200.aspx
Quote Hawaii’s football program has been accused of point-shaving. We dig into the data to examine the allegations. Signs of point shaving? 1) Record against the spread. Teams that point-shave lose ATS. Hawaii’s ATS Record: 3-7-1 (0-5-1 last 6 games) 2) Big money bet against team in question. More money bet ON Hawaii: 4 times More money bet AGAINST Hawaii: 6 times Equal money bet: 1 time 3) Big money wins high percentage of the time Big Money record: 4 winners, 5 losers (1 push), (once equal money) 4) When big money bet against team, team losses ATS. Big money against Hawaii moved the line 3-points or more FOUR TIMES. Big bettors fading Hawaii won 3 times, lost 0 times, and pushed 1 time. Most suspicious game: Lost by 20 points as a 17-point favorite at UNLV. Favorites of 17 or more have won 217 of 226 games this season. Of the big 9 favorites who lost, Hawaii only one to lose by more than 7-points. Conclusion: Data does not support rampant game fixing. (Consider that Pregame.com reporting uncovered that big bettors won 15 straight games during the Tim Donaghy scandal). Yet, the data is not inconsistent with targeted point shaving in a handful of games. |