Week 6 Games

[bama57]

Given my less than stellar record it likely doesn't matter what games you choose.

True that! not much competition down here at the bottom since ricky left

[BAMAWV]

Given my less than stellar record it likely doesn't matter what games you choose.

True that! not much competition down here at the bottom since ricky left

Preacher blew off that "Blessed are the meek" stuff!

[ALTideUp]

Given my less than stellar record it likely doesn't matter what games you choose.

True that! not much competition down here at the bottom since ricky left

Plenty of games left. As more data are accumulated and chance gives way to the authority of a larger sample of observations, we will all end up between an average of 4-6 and 6-4, within the poll's margin of error.

[Leroy]

Given my less than stellar record it likely doesn't matter what games you choose.

True that! not much competition down here at the bottom since ricky left

Plenty of games left. As more data are accumulated and chance gives way to the authority of a larger sample of observations, we will all end up between an average of 4-6 and 6-4, within the poll's margin of error.

  Wanna bet? 

I'll confess that it used to be that when I was stuck and couldn't decide on a Pick I would just look at Ricky's picks and go the other way. 

Now it seems the best chance of winning is to just copy Ricky's picks and then hope to edge him out on the tiebreaker 

Roll TIDE Brother Ricky 

[pmull]

Given my less than stellar record it likely doesn't matter what games you choose.

True that! not much competition down here at the bottom since ricky left

Plenty of games left. As more data are accumulated and chance gives way to the authority of a larger sample of observations, we will all end up between an average of 4-6 and 6-4, within the poll's margin of error.

4-6 is looking pretty good to me right now. I've had four bad weeks in a roll.  

[SUPERCOACH]

Given my less than stellar record it likely doesn't matter what games you choose.

True that! not much competition down here at the bottom since ricky left

Plenty of games left. As more data are accumulated and chance gives way to the authority of a larger sample of observations, we will all end up between an average of 4-6 and 6-4, within the poll's margin of error.

I don't agree with this.  This would be true if the outcome of the picks where purely chance, but it is not.  The betting lines are set so that there is an equal amount of money on both sides.  Therefore the betting lines are set based on perception of what the difference in score will be.  To the degree that you are able to predict the outcomes better than the mass perception, you will win.  In other words, if you can identify where all the lemmings are buying into the hype of a team and therefore skewing the betting lines, you will increase your odds above simple chance.  It is very similar to the stock market actually.

[BAMAWV]

Given my less than stellar record it likely doesn't matter what games you choose.

True that! not much competition down here at the bottom since ricky left

Plenty of games left. As more data are accumulated and chance gives way to the authority of a larger sample of observations, we will all end up between an average of 4-6 and 6-4, within the poll's margin of error.

I don't agree with this.  This would be true if the outcome of the picks where purely chance, but it is not.  The betting lines are set so that there is an equal amount of money on both sides.  Therefore the betting lines are set based on perception of what the difference in score will be.  To the degree that you are able to predict the outcomes better than the mass perception, you will win.  In other words, if you can identify where all the lemmings are buying into the hype of a team and therefore skewing the betting lines, you will increase your odds above simple chance.  It is very similar to the stock market actually.

Agreed, the bookies set the lines to get an even number on each side. They make their money on the juice, or the 10% paid on losing bets. Real gamblers will find 1, maybe 2 or 3 games per weekend and that is it. Maybe we should have a contest or add to the pick'em a "Pick your best game" or a "triple value pick". JMHO

[SUPERCOACH]

Let's take a look at last years winner for example.  Jamos had a record of 102-70 if you count all the games instead of dropping the 2 lowest weekly scores.  I believe his record was that good because he has better insight into how the games will turn out compared to the mass perception among people who are betting on the games.

Now if you make your picks by just randomly going through there and not paying attention, then yes, you will probably come in somewhere close to 50% given a large enough sample.  However if you look at each game and study the two teams involved, look at how they have fared in the previous weeks, who they have played against, pay attention throughout the season and watch as many teams as you can on TV, then I think all of those things will give you insights that will increase your odds above 50%.

[SUPERCOACH]

Given my less than stellar record it likely doesn't matter what games you choose.

True that! not much competition down here at the bottom since ricky left

Plenty of games left. As more data are accumulated and chance gives way to the authority of a larger sample of observations, we will all end up between an average of 4-6 and 6-4, within the poll's margin of error.

I don't agree with this.  This would be true if the outcome of the picks where purely chance, but it is not.  The betting lines are set so that there is an equal amount of money on both sides.  Therefore the betting lines are set based on perception of what the difference in score will be.  To the degree that you are able to predict the outcomes better than the mass perception, you will win.  In other words, if you can identify where all the lemmings are buying into the hype of a team and therefore skewing the betting lines, you will increase your odds above simple chance.  It is very similar to the stock market actually.

Agreed, the bookies set the lines to get an even number on each side. They make their money on the juice, or the 10% paid on losing bets. Real gamblers will find 1, maybe 2 or 3 games per weekend and that is it. Maybe we should have a contest or add to the pick'em a "Pick your best game" or a "triple value pick". JMHO

I actually am working on something that will add this wrinkle to the contest.  At some point I plan to let each person choose which 10 games they want to pick each week.  This will give each member a chance to survey all the available games and pick on the ones where they believe there is more value.  I will require 10 games to keep the scoring easy, but if you get to choose your own 10 games then you can pick the games where you think the point spread is skewed due to one team being overhyped, etc.  This will bring even more skill into the contest.

[BAMAWV]

Let's take a look at last years winner for example.  Jamos had a record of 102-70 if you count all the games instead of dropping the 2 lowest weekly scores.  I believe his record was that good because he has better insight into how the games will turn out compared to the mass perception among people who are betting on the games.

Now if you make your picks by just randomly going through there and not paying attention, then yes, you will probably come in somewhere close to 50% given a large enough sample.  However if you look at each game and study the two teams involved, look at how they have fared in the previous weeks, who they have played against, pay attention throughout the season and watch as many teams as you can on TV, then I think all of those things will give you insights that will increase your odds above 50%.

Disagreed. That betting line supposedly evens out the two teams, by, as you said, the perception of the gamblers. This puts a lot of games to within a FG or a missed FG many times. So you can study til you are purple but to increase your odds with that many picks you need LADY LUCK. HTH

[SUPERCOACH]

Let's take a look at last years winner for example.  Jamos had a record of 102-70 if you count all the games instead of dropping the 2 lowest weekly scores.  I believe his record was that good because he has better insight into how the games will turn out compared to the mass perception among people who are betting on the games.

Now if you make your picks by just randomly going through there and not paying attention, then yes, you will probably come in somewhere close to 50% given a large enough sample.  However if you look at each game and study the two teams involved, look at how they have fared in the previous weeks, who they have played against, pay attention throughout the season and watch as many teams as you can on TV, then I think all of those things will give you insights that will increase your odds above 50%.

Disagreed. That betting line supposedly evens out the two teams, by, as you said, the perception of the gamblers. This puts a lot of games to within a FG or a missed FG many times. So you can study til you are purple but to increase your odds with that many picks you need LADY LUCK. HTH

Perception being the key word there.  There is a lot of money put on games by people who have no idea what they are doing  (see Floyd Mayweather's 3 million bet on Michigan).  You don't have to always be right, but if you can be right more than the Floyd Mayweather's of the world then you increase your chances above 50% IMO.

I would not be surprised to see the same group of guys finishing close to the top of our contest each year.  I suspect the guys who spend the most time paying attention to college football in general will tend to bubble to the top.

[BAMAWV]

Let's take a look at last years winner for example.  Jamos had a record of 102-70 if you count all the games instead of dropping the 2 lowest weekly scores.  I believe his record was that good because he has better insight into how the games will turn out compared to the mass perception among people who are betting on the games.

Now if you make your picks by just randomly going through there and not paying attention, then yes, you will probably come in somewhere close to 50% given a large enough sample.  However if you look at each game and study the two teams involved, look at how they have fared in the previous weeks, who they have played against, pay attention throughout the season and watch as many teams as you can on TV, then I think all of those things will give you insights that will increase your odds above 50%.

Disagreed. That betting line supposedly evens out the two teams, by, as you said, the perception of the gamblers. This puts a lot of games to within a FG or a missed FG many times. So you can study til you are purple but to increase your odds with that many picks you need LADY LUCK. HTH

Perception being the key word there.  There is a lot of money put on games by people who have no idea what they are doing  (see Floyd Mayweather's 3 million bet on Michigan).  You don't have to always be right, but if you can be right more than the Floyd Mayweather's of the world then you increase your chances above 50% IMO.

I would not be surprised to see the same group of guys finishing close to the top of our contest each year.  I suspect the guys who spend the most time paying attention to college football in general will tend to bubble to the top.

I like the ESPN bowl game selection process where you weigh your picks (1-34?). Maybe too complicated for our weekly pick 'em.

[BAMAWV]

Let's take a look at last years winner for example.  Jamos had a record of 102-70 if you count all the games instead of dropping the 2 lowest weekly scores.  I believe his record was that good because he has better insight into how the games will turn out compared to the mass perception among people who are betting on the games.

Now if you make your picks by just randomly going through there and not paying attention, then yes, you will probably come in somewhere close to 50% given a large enough sample.  However if you look at each game and study the two teams involved, look at how they have fared in the previous weeks, who they have played against, pay attention throughout the season and watch as many teams as you can on TV, then I think all of those things will give you insights that will increase your odds above 50%.

Disagreed. That betting line supposedly evens out the two teams, by, as you said, the perception of the gamblers. This puts a lot of games to within a FG or a missed FG many times. So you can study til you are purple but to increase your odds with that many picks you need LADY LUCK. HTH

Perception being the key word there.  There is a lot of money put on games by people who have no idea what they are doing  (see Floyd Mayweather's 3 million bet on Michigan).  You don't have to always be right, but if you can be right more than the Floyd Mayweather's of the world then you increase your chances above 50% IMO.

I would not be surprised to see the same group of guys finishing close to the top of our contest each year.  I suspect the guys who spend the most time paying attention to college football in general will tend to bubble to the top.

I like the ESPN bowl game selection process where you weigh your picks (1-34?). Maybe too complicated for our weekly pick 'em.

BTW, the opening lines are set by professionals that do that for a living. They study the games inside out, then set the lines. Their track record is their resume. The biggest games, hence the most money gambled on, get the best line setters. Therefore, they influence the publics perception of a game. They get better as the season progresses. The lines get tighter.

[SUPERCOACH]

That is a good way to go for the bowl games since we pick them all instead of the ones we think are easiest.  Maybe I can get that in place for this year.

I need more robots. 
           

[SUPERCOACH]

Let's take a look at last years winner for example.  Jamos had a record of 102-70 if you count all the games instead of dropping the 2 lowest weekly scores.  I believe his record was that good because he has better insight into how the games will turn out compared to the mass perception among people who are betting on the games.

Now if you make your picks by just randomly going through there and not paying attention, then yes, you will probably come in somewhere close to 50% given a large enough sample.  However if you look at each game and study the two teams involved, look at how they have fared in the previous weeks, who they have played against, pay attention throughout the season and watch as many teams as you can on TV, then I think all of those things will give you insights that will increase your odds above 50%.

Disagreed. That betting line supposedly evens out the two teams, by, as you said, the perception of the gamblers. This puts a lot of games to within a FG or a missed FG many times. So you can study til you are purple but to increase your odds with that many picks you need LADY LUCK. HTH

Perception being the key word there.  There is a lot of money put on games by people who have no idea what they are doing  (see Floyd Mayweather's 3 million bet on Michigan).  You don't have to always be right, but if you can be right more than the Floyd Mayweather's of the world then you increase your chances above 50% IMO.

I would not be surprised to see the same group of guys finishing close to the top of our contest each year.  I suspect the guys who spend the most time paying attention to college football in general will tend to bubble to the top.

I like the ESPN bowl game selection process where you weigh your picks (1-34?). Maybe too complicated for our weekly pick 'em.

BTW, the opening lines are set by professionals that do that for a living. They study the games inside out, then set the lines. Their track record is their resume. The biggest games, hence the most money gambled on, get the best line setters. Therefore, they influence the publics perception of a game. They get better as the season progresses. The lines get tighter.

But are they basing their line on what they think the outcome of the game will be, or what they think the betting public's perception is going to be so that they have even money on both sides from the beginning?

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